To recap, the incident happened just after the hour mark in Thursday’s World Cup qualifier between Ireland and Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo was involved in a physical tussle with home defender O’Shea and finished it with a clear elbow into the defender’s back. The referee initially showed a yellow card, but after a VAR review changed it to a straight red.

The situation is all the more serious because the ban for this act of aggression could end up affecting the World Cup itself. Portugal have not yet secured their place at the tournament, but if they beat Armenia at home on Sunday in their final group game of the European qualifiers, they will qualify directly. In that case, their next official match would be their opening game at the World Cup.

That would mean that if Cristiano is given at least a two-match suspension for a red card for violent conduct – which is a very real possibility – his ban would carry over into the start of the World Cup. If Portugal drop into the play-offs instead, the suspension would, of course, apply to those games. For now, all of this remains speculation and no one is yet giving a firm indication of the exact sanction.

Ramón Fuentes, Mundo Deportivo’s expert on federations and regulations, says Portugal should expect at least a three-match ban for their captain. He points to a provision in the FIFA Disciplinary Code, which states: “At least three matches or an appropriate period of suspension for an assault, including elbowing, punching, kicking, biting, spitting at or hitting an opponent or a person other than a match official.” The same article also specifies that behaviour classified as violent conduct is punished with a three-match suspension. Only in the case of a “brutal attack” can the ban be reduced to two games.

There is also a recent precedent involving a Portuguese opponent. In October, Armenia’s Tigran Barseghyan was sent off for head-butting a Finland player. Three weeks later, FIFA announced that it had classified his behaviour as violent conduct and banned him for three official matches. Fuentes concludes that, under the regulations, an elbow is treated in the same way as a head-butt, so as things stand everything suggests Cristiano is facing a three-game suspension.

That would mean he either misses the final qualifier and both legs of the play-offs, or the final qualifier and the first two group-stage matches at the World Cup.